driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.519
- brier
- 0.166
- ECE
- 0.174
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 56
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
ALO
Aston Martin
77%grid 3 - 02
BOT
Kick Sauber
76%grid 10 - 03
RIC
RB
73%grid 12 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
73%grid 8 - 05
ALB
Williams
71%grid 14 - 06
HUL
Haas F1 Team
68%grid 9 - 07
VER
Red Bull Racing
67%grid 1 - 08
OCO
Alpine
60%grid 13 - 09
LEC
Ferrari
59%grid 6 - 10
NOR
McLaren
57%grid 4 - 11
SAI
Ferrari
55%grid 7 - 12
PIA
McLaren
45%grid 5 - 13
GAS
Alpine
39%grid 15 - 14
PER
Red Bull Racing
38%grid 2 - 15
STR
Aston Martin
36%grid 11 - 16
TSU
RB
29%grid 19 - 17
SAR
Williams
26%grid 20 - 18
HAM
Mercedes
26%grid 18 - 19
ZHO
Kick Sauber
25%grid 16 - 20
MAG
Haas F1 Team
21%grid 17
Top driver · factor breakdown
ALO
Aston Martin
Probability
77%
- vs teammate grid+0.80
- vs teammate quali+0.22
- finish pattern+0.12
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on ALO (Aston Martin) at 77.0%.
Strongest team average: Ferrari 57.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race