driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.503
- brier
- 0.160
- ECE
- 0.206
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 57
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
81%grid 5 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
80%grid 1 - 03
SAI
Ferrari
73%grid 2 - 04
GAS
Alpine
71%grid 3 - 05
ZHO
Kick Sauber
68%grid 13 - 06
NOR
McLaren
68%grid 6 - 07
TSU
RB
66%grid 7 - 08
ALO
Aston Martin
63%grid 16 - 09
HUL
Haas F1 Team
55%grid 9 - 10
PIA
McLaren
49%grid 8 - 11
COL
Williams
47%grid 20 - 12
STR
Aston Martin
46%grid 18 - 13
ALB
Williams
42%grid 17 - 14
MAG
Haas F1 Team
36%grid 12 - 15
LEC
Ferrari
31%grid 4 - 16
OCO
Alpine
30%grid 11 - 17
HAM
Mercedes
30%grid 10 - 18
BOT
Kick Sauber
28%grid 19 - 19
LAW
RB
25%grid 14 - 20
PER
Red Bull Racing
24%grid 15
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
81%
- vs teammate grid+0.90
- vs teammate quali+0.29
- driver form (last 5)+0.16
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 80.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 58.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race