driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.611
- brier
- 0.211
- ECE
- 0.155
- field avg
- 49%
- spread
- 48
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
ALB
Williams
75%grid 9 - 02
RIC
RB
72%grid 12 - 03
VER
Red Bull Racing
68%grid 7 - 04
NOR
McLaren
62%grid 1 - 05
ALO
Aston Martin
61%grid 11 - 06
RUS
Mercedes
60%grid 3 - 07
BOT
Kick Sauber
55%grid 19 - 08
LEC
Ferrari
54%grid 4 - 09
HUL
Haas F1 Team
50%grid 10 - 10
OCO
Alpine
48%grid 15 - 11
SAI
Ferrari
47%grid 5 - 12
PIA
McLaren
42%grid 2 - 13
ZHO
Kick Sauber
42%grid 20 - 14
GAS
Alpine
41%grid 14 - 15
PER
Red Bull Racing
38%grid 8 - 16
HAM
Mercedes
37%grid 6 - 17
MAG
Haas F1 Team
37%grid 13 - 18
TSU
RB
35%grid 16 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
35%grid 17 - 20
COL
Williams
27%grid 18
Top driver · factor breakdown
ALB
Williams
Probability
75%
- vs teammate grid+0.74
- vs teammate quali+0.39
- driver form (last 5)−0.12
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on ALB (Williams) at 74.8%.
Strongest team average: RB 53.6%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race