driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.592
- brier
- 0.205
- ECE
- 0.234
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 61
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
83%grid 3 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
81%grid 2 - 03
GAS
Alpine
74%grid 8 - 04
ALB
Williams
69%grid 9 - 05
SAI
Ferrari
67%grid 1 - 06
RUS
Mercedes
62%grid 5 - 07
TSU
RB
57%grid 11 - 08
ALO
Aston Martin
57%grid 13 - 09
MAG
Haas F1 Team
56%grid 7 - 10
BOT
Kick Sauber
53%grid 15 - 11
LAW
RB
44%grid 12 - 12
HAM
Mercedes
43%grid 6 - 13
STR
Aston Martin
40%grid 14 - 14
HUL
Haas F1 Team
39%grid 10 - 15
COL
Williams
36%grid 16 - 16
ZHO
Kick Sauber
35%grid 19 - 17
LEC
Ferrari
31%grid 4 - 18
PER
Red Bull Racing
25%grid 18 - 19
OCO
Alpine
25%grid 20 - 20
PIA
McLaren
22%grid 17
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
83%
- vs teammate grid+0.93
- vs teammate quali+0.32
- driver form (last 5)+0.19
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 83.0%.
Strongest team average: Red Bull Racing 52.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race