driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.623
- brier
- 0.208
- ECE
- 0.196
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 82
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
95%grid 17 - 02
NOR
McLaren
94%grid 3 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
92%grid 4 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
91%grid 2 - 05
SAI
Ferrari
90%grid 1 - 06
RUS
Mercedes
86%grid 5 - 07
HAM
Mercedes
77%grid 6 - 08
PER
Red Bull Racing
68%grid 18 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
53%grid 13 - 10
HUL
Haas F1 Team
39%grid 10 - 11
COL
Williams
34%grid 16 - 12
ALB
Williams
31%grid 9 - 13
GAS
Alpine
26%grid 8 - 14
STR
Aston Martin
25%grid 14 - 15
OCO
Alpine
25%grid 20 - 16
LAW
RB
25%grid 12 - 17
TSU
RB
21%grid 11 - 18
MAG
Haas F1 Team
20%grid 7 - 19
BOT
Kick Sauber
14%grid 15 - 20
ZHO
Kick Sauber
12%grid 19
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
95%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.01
- team form+0.90
- finish pattern+0.39
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 94.7%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 94.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)