driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.432
- brier
- 0.140
- ECE
- 0.144
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 86
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
95%grid 5 - 02
NOR
McLaren
95%grid 1 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
91%grid 9 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
88%grid 2 - 05
SAI
Ferrari
86%grid 10 - 06
HAM
Mercedes
81%grid 3 - 07
RUS
Mercedes
80%grid 4 - 08
PER
Red Bull Racing
65%grid 13 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
50%grid 7 - 10
ALB
Williams
49%grid 11 - 11
COL
Williams
45%grid 12 - 12
GAS
Alpine
31%grid 18 - 13
STR
Aston Martin
30%grid 17 - 14
RIC
RB
25%grid 16 - 15
HUL
Haas F1 Team
25%grid 6 - 16
OCO
Alpine
20%grid 15 - 17
TSU
RB
18%grid 8 - 18
MAG
Haas F1 Team
15%grid 14 - 19
BOT
Kick Sauber
11%grid 19 - 20
ZHO
Kick Sauber
9%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
95%
- team form+1.03
- Q3 appearance rate+1.01
- finish pattern+0.43
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 95.1%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 95.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)