driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.474
- brier
- 0.151
- ECE
- 0.152
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 84
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
95%grid 1 - 02
PIA
McLaren
95%grid 5 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
88%grid 4 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
87%grid 2 - 05
RUS
Mercedes
87%grid 20 - 06
HAM
Mercedes
86%grid 17 - 07
SAI
Ferrari
85%grid 3 - 08
ALO
Aston Martin
61%grid 7 - 09
PER
Red Bull Racing
61%grid 9 - 10
ALB
Williams
39%grid 14 - 11
HUL
Haas F1 Team
33%grid 11 - 12
COL
Williams
33%grid 15 - 13
STR
Aston Martin
30%grid 13 - 14
GAS
Alpine
23%grid 6 - 15
TSU
RB
22%grid 10 - 16
LAW
RB
22%grid 19 - 17
OCO
Alpine
21%grid 12 - 18
MAG
Haas F1 Team
18%grid 8 - 19
BOT
Kick Sauber
13%grid 16 - 20
ZHO
Kick Sauber
11%grid 18
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
95%
- team form+1.05
- Q3 appearance rate+0.80
- finish pattern+0.41
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 94.9%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 94.7%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)