driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.329
- brier
- 0.104
- ECE
- 0.223
- field avg
- 24%
- spread
- 84
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
86%grid 5 - 02
NOR
McLaren
67%grid 1 - 03
SAI
Ferrari
58%grid 3 - 04
LEC
Ferrari
56%grid 4 - 05
VER
Red Bull Racing
48%grid 2 - 06
RUS
Mercedes
42%grid 20 - 07
HAM
Mercedes
39%grid 17 - 08
PER
Red Bull Racing
20%grid 9 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
15%grid 7 - 10
ALB
Williams
11%grid 14 - 11
STR
Aston Martin
10%grid 13 - 12
HUL
Haas F1 Team
8%grid 11 - 13
TSU
RB
6%grid 10 - 14
COL
Williams
5%grid 15 - 15
OCO
Alpine
5%grid 12 - 16
GAS
Alpine
3%grid 6 - 17
LAW
RB
3%grid 19 - 18
MAG
Haas F1 Team
2%grid 8 - 19
BOT
Kick Sauber
2%grid 16 - 20
ZHO
Kick Sauber
2%grid 18
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
86%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.55
- team form+1.34
- finish pattern−0.85
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 86.1%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 76.3%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectSprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5