driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.266
- brier
- 0.082
- ECE
- 0.140
- field avg
- 18%
- spread
- 60
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
SAI
Ferrari
61%grid 7 - 02
LEC
Ferrari
58%grid 5 - 03
RUS
Mercedes
56%grid 1 - 04
NOR
McLaren
39%grid 3 - 05
HAM
Mercedes
29%grid 6 - 06
PIA
McLaren
27%grid 4 - 07
VER
Red Bull Racing
26%grid 2 - 08
ALB
Williams
14%grid 16 - 09
TSU
RB
10%grid 14 - 10
PER
Red Bull Racing
9%grid 9 - 11
GAS
Alpine
8%grid 11 - 12
ALO
Aston Martin
7%grid 8 - 13
LAW
RB
6%grid 17 - 14
OCO
Alpine
6%grid 20 - 15
HUL
Haas F1 Team
4%grid 18 - 16
MAG
Haas F1 Team
4%grid 10 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
4%grid 15 - 18
BOT
Kick Sauber
1%grid 13 - 19
COL
Williams
1%grid 19 - 20
ZHO
Kick Sauber
1%grid 12
Top driver · factor breakdown
SAI
Ferrari
Probability
61%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.23
- team form+0.78
- driver form (last 3)+0.49
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on SAI (Ferrari) at 60.5%.
Strongest team average: Ferrari 59.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectSprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5