driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.113
- brier
- 0.040
- ECE
- 0.074
- field avg
- 5%
- spread
- 49
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
49%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
26%grid 2 - 03
NOR
McLaren
9%grid 3 - 04
LEC
Ferrari
7%grid 5 - 05
SAI
Ferrari
2%grid 7 - 06
PIA
McLaren
2%grid 4 - 07
HAM
Mercedes
1%grid 6 - 08
PER
Red Bull Racing
0%grid 9 - 09
LAW
RB
0%grid 17 - 10
HUL
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 18 - 11
STR
Aston Martin
0%grid 15 - 12
TSU
RB
0%grid 14 - 13
ALB
Williams
0%grid 16 - 14
ALO
Aston Martin
0%grid 8 - 15
BOT
Kick Sauber
0%grid 13 - 16
ZHO
Kick Sauber
0%grid 12 - 17
COL
Williams
0%grid 19 - 18
GAS
Alpine
0%grid 11 - 19
OCO
Alpine
0%grid 20 - 20
MAG
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 10
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
49%
- grid position+2.43
- team form+0.78
- driver form (last 5)+0.73
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 48.8%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 25.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver WINS (1st place)