driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.111
- brier
- 0.036
- ECE
- 0.050
- field avg
- 3%
- spread
- 16
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
HAM
Mercedes
16%grid 3 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
11%grid 11 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
8%grid 1 - 04
PIA
McLaren
5%grid 5 - 05
NOR
McLaren
5%grid 4 - 06
PER
Red Bull Racing
4%grid 2 - 07
RUS
Mercedes
2%grid 6 - 08
SAI
Ferrari
0%grid 7 - 09
SAR
Williams
0%grid 18 - 10
ALB
Williams
0%grid 10 - 11
MAG
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 17 - 12
ZHO
Kick Sauber
0%grid 19 - 13
ALO
Aston Martin
0%grid 8 - 14
OCO
Alpine
0%grid 9 - 15
RIC
RB
0%grid 13 - 16
GAS
Alpine
0%grid 12 - 17
BOT
Kick Sauber
0%grid 14 - 18
TSU
RB
0%grid 20 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
0%grid 15 - 20
HUL
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 16
Top driver · factor breakdown
HAM
Mercedes
Probability
16%
- driver form (last 5)+1.45
- team form+0.82
- grid position+0.71
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on HAM (Mercedes) at 16.3%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 8.9%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver WINS (1st place)