driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.160
- brier
- 0.057
- ECE
- 0.082
- field avg
- 6%
- spread
- 59
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
60%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
26%grid 4 - 03
HAM
Mercedes
17%grid 2 - 04
NOR
McLaren
12%grid 3 - 05
PIA
McLaren
3%grid 5 - 06
PER
Red Bull Racing
1%grid 20 - 07
HUL
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 6 - 08
ZHO
Kick Sauber
0%grid 14 - 09
OCO
Alpine
0%grid 18 - 10
GAS
Alpine
0%grid 19 - 11
LEC
Ferrari
0%grid 11 - 12
SAR
Williams
0%grid 12 - 13
MAG
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 17 - 14
STR
Aston Martin
0%grid 8 - 15
TSU
RB
0%grid 13 - 16
ALB
Williams
0%grid 9 - 17
SAI
Ferrari
0%grid 7 - 18
ALO
Aston Martin
0%grid 10 - 19
BOT
Kick Sauber
0%grid 16 - 20
RIC
RB
0%grid 15
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
60%
- grid position+2.45
- team form+0.92
- driver form (last 5)+0.77
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 59.6%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 38.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver WINS (1st place)