driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.103
- brier
- 0.034
- ECE
- 0.062
- field avg
- 3%
- spread
- 20
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
20%grid 1 - 02
SAI
Ferrari
19%grid 2 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
11%grid 4 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
6%grid 5 - 05
NOR
McLaren
2%grid 6 - 06
GAS
Alpine
2%grid 3 - 07
HAM
Mercedes
1%grid 10 - 08
PIA
McLaren
1%grid 8 - 09
PER
Red Bull Racing
0%grid 15 - 10
TSU
RB
0%grid 7 - 11
BOT
Kick Sauber
0%grid 19 - 12
HUL
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 9 - 13
OCO
Alpine
0%grid 11 - 14
ALB
Williams
0%grid 17 - 15
MAG
Haas F1 Team
0%grid 12 - 16
ZHO
Kick Sauber
0%grid 13 - 17
ALO
Aston Martin
0%grid 16 - 18
STR
Aston Martin
0%grid 18 - 19
LAW
RB
0%grid 14 - 20
COL
Williams
0%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
20%
- grid position+2.70
- quali gap to pole+0.72
- driver form (last 5)+0.19
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 20.3%.
Strongest team average: Ferrari 14.7%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver WINS (1st place)