driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.501
- brier
- 0.171
- ECE
- 0.160
- field avg
- 52%
- spread
- 80
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
93%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
93%grid 4 - 03
PIA
McLaren
92%grid 5 - 04
HAM
Mercedes
92%grid 2 - 05
NOR
McLaren
92%grid 3 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
78%grid 11 - 07
PER
Red Bull Racing
77%grid 20 - 08
SAI
Ferrari
76%grid 7 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
49%grid 10 - 10
HUL
Haas F1 Team
44%grid 6 - 11
TSU
RB
43%grid 13 - 12
STR
Aston Martin
36%grid 8 - 13
RIC
RB
31%grid 15 - 14
OCO
Alpine
25%grid 18 - 15
GAS
Alpine
25%grid 19 - 16
ALB
Williams
21%grid 9 - 17
BOT
Kick Sauber
20%grid 16 - 18
MAG
Haas F1 Team
17%grid 17 - 19
ZHO
Kick Sauber
14%grid 14 - 20
SAR
Williams
13%grid 12
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
93%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.01
- team form+0.79
- finish pattern+0.41
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 93.3%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 92.5%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)