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§ Round 24 · 2024

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

2024-12-08 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation

← R23
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.626
brier
0.210
ECE
0.275
field avg
52%
spread
78

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    RUS

    Mercedes

    93%grid 6
  2. 02

    LEC

    Ferrari

    92%grid 19
  3. 03

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    89%grid 4
  4. 04

    NOR

    McLaren

    85%grid 1
  5. 05

    PIA

    McLaren

    85%grid 2
  6. 06

    SAI

    Ferrari

    82%grid 3
  7. 07

    HAM

    Mercedes

    77%grid 16
  8. 08

    PER

    Red Bull Racing

    64%grid 10
  9. 09

    DOO

    Alpine

    56%grid 17
  10. 10

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    49%grid 8
  11. 11

    GAS

    Alpine

    48%grid 5
  12. 12

    TSU

    RB

    38%grid 11
  13. 13

    MAG

    Haas F1 Team

    33%grid 14
  14. 14

    HUL

    Haas F1 Team

    31%grid 7
  15. 15

    ALB

    Williams

    30%grid 18
  16. 16

    LAW

    RB

    27%grid 12
  17. 17

    STR

    Aston Martin

    21%grid 13
  18. 18

    BOT

    Kick Sauber

    16%grid 9
  19. 19

    COL

    Williams

    15%grid 20
  20. 20

    ZHO

    Kick Sauber

    14%grid 15

Top driver · factor breakdown

RUS

Mercedes

Probability

93%

  • Q3 appearance rate
    +1.01
  • team form
    +0.48
  • finish pattern
    +0.39
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 92.6%.

Strongest team average: Ferrari 87.0%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)