§ Round 24 · 2025
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
2025-12-07 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.578
- brier
- 0.200
- ECE
- 0.260
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 82
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
93%grid 1 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
92%grid 4 - 03
NOR
McLaren
92%grid 2 - 04
PIA
McLaren
88%grid 3 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
82%grid 5 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
81%grid 14 - 07
HAD
Racing Bulls
68%grid 9 - 08
SAI
Williams
65%grid 12 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
54%grid 6 - 10
LAW
Racing Bulls
46%grid 13 - 11
HAM
Ferrari
42%grid 16 - 12
BEA
Haas F1 Team
40%grid 11 - 13
TSU
Red Bull Racing
33%grid 10 - 14
GAS
Alpine
28%grid 19 - 15
HUL
Kick Sauber
27%grid 18 - 16
BOR
Kick Sauber
19%grid 7 - 17
ALB
Williams
19%grid 17 - 18
OCO
Haas F1 Team
18%grid 8 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
16%grid 15 - 20
COL
Alpine
10%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
93%
- Q3 appearance rate+0.84
- finish pattern+0.58
- team form+0.34
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 92.5%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 89.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)