driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.414
- brier
- 0.130
- ECE
- 0.180
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 81
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
96%grid 2 - 02
NOR
McLaren
94%grid 3 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
91%grid 6 - 04
HAM
Ferrari
88%grid 5 - 05
RUS
Mercedes
87%grid 4 - 06
VER
Red Bull Racing
82%grid 1 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
72%grid 10 - 08
HAD
Racing Bulls
54%grid 12 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
46%grid 7 - 10
ALB
Williams
38%grid 13 - 11
TSU
Red Bull Racing
36%grid 11 - 12
SAI
Williams
35%grid 9 - 13
LAW
Racing Bulls
32%grid 15 - 14
GAS
Alpine
31%grid 8 - 15
HUL
Kick Sauber
31%grid 19 - 16
BOR
Kick Sauber
28%grid 16 - 17
OCO
Haas F1 Team
24%grid 14 - 18
BEA
Haas F1 Team
24%grid 18 - 19
STR
Aston Martin
19%grid 17 - 20
COL
Alpine
15%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
96%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.05
- team form+0.64
- finish pattern+0.54
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 95.8%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 95.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)