driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.380
- brier
- 0.115
- ECE
- 0.131
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 80
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
95%grid 6 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
92%grid 3 - 03
PIA
McLaren
91%grid 1 - 04
VER
Red Bull Racing
88%grid 7 - 05
ANT
Mercedes
80%grid 5 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
76%grid 2 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
66%grid 9 - 08
ALB
Williams
55%grid 15 - 09
HAD
Racing Bulls
53%grid 12 - 10
SAI
Williams
52%grid 8 - 11
TSU
Red Bull Racing
50%grid 10 - 12
ALO
Aston Martin
40%grid 13 - 13
GAS
Alpine
33%grid 4 - 14
BEA
Haas F1 Team
31%grid 20 - 15
HUL
Kick Sauber
30%grid 16 - 16
OCO
Haas F1 Team
24%grid 14 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
21%grid 19 - 18
LAW
Racing Bulls
19%grid 17 - 19
BOR
Kick Sauber
15%grid 18 - 20
DOO
Alpine
15%grid 11
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
95%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.05
- team form+0.69
- finish pattern+0.58
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 94.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 92.6%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectQualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)