driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.502
- brier
- 0.165
- ECE
- 0.118
- field avg
- 49%
- spread
- 83
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
93%grid 6 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
91%grid 3 - 03
VER
Red Bull Racing
91%grid 7 - 04
PIA
McLaren
90%grid 1 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
89%grid 2 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
85%grid 5 - 07
SAI
Williams
70%grid 8 - 08
HAM
Ferrari
69%grid 9 - 09
GAS
Alpine
63%grid 4 - 10
TSU
Red Bull Racing
58%grid 10 - 11
ALO
Aston Martin
31%grid 13 - 12
HAD
Racing Bulls
25%grid 12 - 13
OCO
Haas F1 Team
25%grid 14 - 14
ALB
Williams
21%grid 15 - 15
STR
Aston Martin
15%grid 19 - 16
DOO
Alpine
14%grid 11 - 17
HUL
Kick Sauber
14%grid 16 - 18
BEA
Haas F1 Team
12%grid 20 - 19
LAW
Racing Bulls
11%grid 17 - 20
BOR
Kick Sauber
10%grid 18
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
93%
- grid position+0.91
- driver form (last 5)+0.71
- team form+0.66
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 93.0%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 91.4%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
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