§ Round 01 · 2025
Australian Grand Prix.
2025-03-16 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.575
- brier
- 0.203
- ECE
- 0.191
- field avg
- 54%
- spread
- 77
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
94%grid 3 - 02
LEC
Ferrari
91%grid 7 - 03
NOR
McLaren
91%grid 1 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
88%grid 4 - 05
PIA
McLaren
87%grid 2 - 06
HAM
Ferrari
74%grid 8 - 07
TSU
Racing Bulls
74%grid 5 - 08
SAI
Williams
69%grid 10 - 09
GAS
Alpine
67%grid 9 - 10
ALB
Williams
54%grid 6 - 11
HAD
Racing Bulls
54%grid 11 - 12
ANT
Mercedes
36%grid 16 - 13
ALO
Aston Martin
34%grid 12 - 14
BEA
Haas F1 Team
27%grid 20 - 15
LAW
Red Bull Racing
26%grid 18 - 16
DOO
Alpine
24%grid 14 - 17
HUL
Kick Sauber
23%grid 17 - 18
STR
Aston Martin
23%grid 13 - 19
BOR
Kick Sauber
20%grid 15 - 20
OCO
Haas F1 Team
16%grid 19
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
94%
- grid position+0.93
- driver form (last 5)+0.70
- team form+0.51
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 93.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 89.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
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