§ Round 24 · 2025
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
2025-12-07 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.571
- brier
- 0.204
- ECE
- 0.329
- field avg
- 55%
- spread
- 87
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
93%grid 2 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
93%grid 1 - 03
PIA
McLaren
89%grid 3 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
88%grid 4 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
85%grid 5 - 06
ALO
Aston Martin
73%grid 6 - 07
ANT
Mercedes
72%grid 14 - 08
OCO
Haas F1 Team
61%grid 8 - 09
SAI
Williams
60%grid 12 - 10
BEA
Haas F1 Team
60%grid 11 - 11
HAD
Racing Bulls
57%grid 9 - 12
TSU
Red Bull Racing
55%grid 10 - 13
BOR
Kick Sauber
54%grid 7 - 14
HAM
Ferrari
42%grid 16 - 15
LAW
Racing Bulls
30%grid 13 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
26%grid 15 - 17
ALB
Williams
23%grid 17 - 18
HUL
Kick Sauber
22%grid 18 - 19
GAS
Alpine
12%grid 19 - 20
COL
Alpine
7%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
93%
- grid position+0.87
- driver form (last 5)+0.64
- team form+0.40
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 93.2%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 91.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver scores points (top 10)