§ Round 24 · 2024
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
2024-12-08 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.616
- brier
- 0.211
- ECE
- 0.201
- field avg
- 49%
- spread
- 58
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
81%grid 6 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
80%grid 4 - 03
SAI
Ferrari
76%grid 3 - 04
HUL
Haas F1 Team
73%grid 7 - 05
GAS
Alpine
72%grid 5 - 06
BOT
Kick Sauber
66%grid 9 - 07
NOR
McLaren
59%grid 1 - 08
ALO
Aston Martin
57%grid 8 - 09
TSU
RB
51%grid 11 - 10
LAW
RB
47%grid 12 - 11
ALB
Williams
44%grid 18 - 12
PIA
McLaren
41%grid 2 - 13
COL
Williams
38%grid 20 - 14
PER
Red Bull Racing
33%grid 10 - 15
ZHO
Kick Sauber
32%grid 15 - 16
MAG
Haas F1 Team
29%grid 14 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
28%grid 13 - 18
DOO
Alpine
27%grid 17 - 19
LEC
Ferrari
23%grid 19 - 20
HAM
Mercedes
23%grid 16
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
81%
- vs teammate grid+0.86
- vs teammate quali+0.30
- driver form (last 5)+0.14
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 80.6%.
Strongest team average: Red Bull Racing 56.6%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race