driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.587
- brier
- 0.202
- ECE
- 0.209
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 61
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
82%grid 2 - 02
LEC
Ferrari
77%grid 1 - 03
ALO
Aston Martin
73%grid 7 - 04
GAS
Alpine
72%grid 18 - 05
PER
Red Bull Racing
71%grid 4 - 06
RUS
Mercedes
69%grid 5 - 07
BEA
Haas F1 Team
65%grid 10 - 08
COL
Williams
62%grid 8 - 09
BOT
Kick Sauber
53%grid 16 - 10
TSU
RB
52%grid 11 - 11
HUL
Haas F1 Team
43%grid 12 - 12
ALB
Williams
42%grid 9 - 13
ZHO
Kick Sauber
37%grid 17 - 14
VER
Red Bull Racing
35%grid 6 - 15
RIC
RB
33%grid 14 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
30%grid 13 - 17
OCO
Alpine
29%grid 20 - 18
SAI
Ferrari
29%grid 3 - 19
HAM
Mercedes
24%grid 19 - 20
NOR
McLaren
22%grid 15
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
82%
- vs teammate grid+0.90
- vs teammate quali+0.29
- driver form (last 5)+0.18
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 82.2%.
Strongest team average: Haas F1 Team 54.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race