driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.533
- brier
- 0.177
- ECE
- 0.114
- field avg
- 49%
- spread
- 61
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
82%grid 2 - 02
NOR
McLaren
82%grid 1 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
80%grid 6 - 04
OCO
Alpine
75%grid 4 - 05
BOT
Kick Sauber
69%grid 11 - 06
ALB
Williams
69%grid 7 - 07
BEA
Haas F1 Team
63%grid 15 - 08
PER
Red Bull Racing
61%grid 12 - 09
STR
Aston Martin
56%grid 10 - 10
ALO
Aston Martin
54%grid 9 - 11
TSU
RB
51%grid 3 - 12
LAW
RB
37%grid 5 - 13
VER
Red Bull Racing
34%grid 17 - 14
HUL
Haas F1 Team
34%grid 18 - 15
COL
Williams
24%grid 16 - 16
PIA
McLaren
24%grid 8 - 17
HAM
Mercedes
24%grid 14 - 18
SAI
Ferrari
24%grid 20 - 19
ZHO
Kick Sauber
22%grid 19 - 20
GAS
Alpine
21%grid 13
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
82%
- vs teammate grid+0.93
- vs teammate quali+0.35
- track history+0.08
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 81.7%.
Strongest team average: Aston Martin 55.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race