driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.585
- brier
- 0.199
- ECE
- 0.177
- field avg
- 48%
- spread
- 52
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
ALO
Aston Martin
74%grid 5 - 02
NOR
McLaren
71%grid 3 - 03
HUL
Haas F1 Team
71%grid 12 - 04
ALB
Williams
67%grid 14 - 05
BOT
Kick Sauber
65%grid 13 - 06
VER
Red Bull Racing
65%grid 1 - 07
HAM
Mercedes
63%grid 7 - 08
OCO
Alpine
54%grid 15 - 09
SAI
Ferrari
53%grid 4 - 10
RIC
RB
52%grid 11 - 11
TSU
RB
44%grid 10 - 12
PER
Red Bull Racing
43%grid 2 - 13
GAS
Alpine
41%grid 17 - 14
RUS
Mercedes
36%grid 9 - 15
LEC
Ferrari
34%grid 8 - 16
SAR
Williams
33%grid 19 - 17
PIA
McLaren
32%grid 6 - 18
MAG
Haas F1 Team
28%grid 18 - 19
ZHO
Kick Sauber
25%grid 20 - 20
STR
Aston Martin
22%grid 16
Top driver · factor breakdown
ALO
Aston Martin
Probability
74%
- vs teammate grid+0.76
- vs teammate quali+0.30
- finish pattern+0.13
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on ALO (Aston Martin) at 74.3%.
Strongest team average: Red Bull Racing 53.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race