driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.517
- brier
- 0.168
- ECE
- 0.243
- field avg
- 49%
- spread
- 54
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
HAM
Mercedes
76%grid 3 - 02
BOT
Kick Sauber
73%grid 14 - 03
RIC
RB
73%grid 13 - 04
ALO
Aston Martin
72%grid 8 - 05
ALB
Williams
69%grid 10 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
65%grid 1 - 07
OCO
Alpine
61%grid 9 - 08
NOR
McLaren
61%grid 4 - 09
PER
Red Bull Racing
60%grid 2 - 10
HUL
Haas F1 Team
50%grid 16 - 11
PIA
McLaren
46%grid 5 - 12
MAG
Haas F1 Team
43%grid 17 - 13
RUS
Mercedes
41%grid 6 - 14
GAS
Alpine
39%grid 12 - 15
VER
Red Bull Racing
31%grid 11 - 16
SAI
Ferrari
29%grid 7 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
28%grid 15 - 18
ZHO
Kick Sauber
25%grid 19 - 19
SAR
Williams
23%grid 18 - 20
TSU
RB
22%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
HAM
Mercedes
Probability
76%
- vs teammate grid+0.61
- track history+0.19
- vs teammate quali+0.16
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on HAM (Mercedes) at 76.3%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 58.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race