driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.390
- brier
- 0.119
- ECE
- 0.105
- field avg
- 48%
- spread
- 81
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
HAM
Mercedes
89%grid 3 - 02
PIA
McLaren
88%grid 5 - 03
NOR
McLaren
87%grid 4 - 04
LEC
Ferrari
86%grid 1 - 05
PER
Red Bull Racing
86%grid 2 - 06
RUS
Mercedes
84%grid 6 - 07
VER
Red Bull Racing
84%grid 11 - 08
SAI
Ferrari
76%grid 7 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
63%grid 8 - 10
OCO
Alpine
28%grid 9 - 11
RIC
RB
28%grid 13 - 12
ALB
Williams
28%grid 10 - 13
HUL
Haas F1 Team
27%grid 16 - 14
STR
Aston Martin
27%grid 15 - 15
GAS
Alpine
20%grid 12 - 16
BOT
Kick Sauber
18%grid 14 - 17
MAG
Haas F1 Team
14%grid 17 - 18
TSU
RB
13%grid 20 - 19
SAR
Williams
9%grid 18 - 20
ZHO
Kick Sauber
9%grid 19
Top driver · factor breakdown
HAM
Mercedes
Probability
89%
- grid position+0.93
- driver form (last 5)+0.59
- team form+0.42
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on HAM (Mercedes) at 89.5%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 87.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
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