JULES TACK.
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§ Round 17 · 2024

Azerbaijan Grand Prix.

2024-09-15 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation

← R16R18 →
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.232
brier
0.069
ECE
0.130
field avg
16%
spread
82

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    PIA

    McLaren

    82%grid 2
  2. 02

    LEC

    Ferrari

    80%grid 1
  3. 03

    SAI

    Ferrari

    52%grid 3
  4. 04

    PER

    Red Bull Racing

    31%grid 4
  5. 05

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    27%grid 6
  6. 06

    NOR

    McLaren

    18%grid 15
  7. 07

    HAM

    Mercedes

    14%grid 19
  8. 08

    RUS

    Mercedes

    9%grid 5
  9. 09

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    2%grid 7
  10. 10

    BEA

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 10
  11. 11

    ZHO

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 17
  12. 12

    OCO

    Alpine

    1%grid 20
  13. 13

    BOT

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 16
  14. 14

    TSU

    RB

    1%grid 11
  15. 15

    STR

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 13
  16. 16

    HUL

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 12
  17. 17

    ALB

    Williams

    1%grid 9
  18. 18

    COL

    Williams

    1%grid 8
  19. 19

    GAS

    Alpine

    1%grid 18
  20. 20

    RIC

    RB

    1%grid 14

Top driver · factor breakdown

PIA

McLaren

Probability

82%

  • grid position
    +1.82
  • team form
    +1.00
  • driver form (last 5)
    +0.92
pushes probability downshappushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 82.1%.

Strongest team average: Ferrari 65.9%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)