driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.254
- brier
- 0.071
- ECE
- 0.158
- field avg
- 30%
- spread
- 76
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
79%grid 7 - 02
NOR
McLaren
74%grid 2 - 03
VER
Red Bull Racing
73%grid 1 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
67%grid 3 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
58%grid 6 - 06
SAI
Ferrari
55%grid 4 - 07
PER
Red Bull Racing
44%grid 8 - 08
HAM
Mercedes
41%grid 5 - 09
TSU
RB
40%grid 14 - 10
ALO
Aston Martin
18%grid 15 - 11
HUL
Haas F1 Team
9%grid 9 - 12
STR
Aston Martin
8%grid 17 - 13
GAS
Alpine
7%grid 13 - 14
ALB
Williams
6%grid 16 - 15
SAR
Williams
6%grid 19 - 16
RIC
RB
4%grid 11 - 17
MAG
Haas F1 Team
4%grid 12 - 18
OCO
Alpine
4%grid 10 - 19
BOT
Kick Sauber
3%grid 18 - 20
ZHO
Kick Sauber
2%grid 20
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
79%
- Q3 appearance rate+1.55
- team form+0.87
- finish pattern−0.58
pushes probability downlinearpushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 78.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 76.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectSprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5