driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.696
- brier
- 0.252
- ECE
- 0.248
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 65
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
NOR
McLaren
86%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
82%grid 5 - 03
SAI
Williams
74%grid 12 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
73%grid 4 - 05
ALO
Aston Martin
68%grid 14 - 06
HAD
Racing Bulls
67%grid 8 - 07
HUL
Kick Sauber
64%grid 13 - 08
BEA
Haas F1 Team
59%grid 9 - 09
GAS
Alpine
59%grid 18 - 10
LEC
Ferrari
58%grid 2 - 11
HAM
Ferrari
43%grid 3 - 12
BOR
Kick Sauber
40%grid 16 - 13
ANT
Mercedes
39%grid 6 - 14
COL
Alpine
35%grid 20 - 15
OCO
Haas F1 Team
32%grid 11 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
30%grid 19 - 17
PIA
McLaren
28%grid 7 - 18
TSU
Red Bull Racing
27%grid 10 - 19
ALB
Williams
24%grid 17 - 20
LAW
Racing Bulls
20%grid 15
Top driver · factor breakdown
NOR
McLaren
Probability
86%
- vs teammate grid+0.89
- vs teammate quali+0.41
- driver form (last 5)+0.26
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 85.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 56.6%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race