driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.361
- brier
- 0.102
- ECE
- 0.210
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 71
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
88%grid 4 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
85%grid 2 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
82%grid 9 - 04
NOR
McLaren
80%grid 1 - 05
SAI
Williams
79%grid 3 - 06
ALO
Aston Martin
75%grid 7 - 07
HUL
Kick Sauber
73%grid 11 - 08
GAS
Alpine
68%grid 10 - 09
LAW
Racing Bulls
61%grid 6 - 10
OCO
Haas F1 Team
49%grid 13 - 11
BEA
Haas F1 Team
42%grid 14 - 12
HAD
Racing Bulls
34%grid 8 - 13
BOR
Kick Sauber
29%grid 18 - 14
PIA
McLaren
25%grid 5 - 15
ANT
Mercedes
24%grid 17 - 16
STR
Aston Martin
23%grid 12 - 17
COL
Alpine
22%grid 15 - 18
HAM
Ferrari
20%grid 19 - 19
TSU
Red Bull Racing
17%grid 20 - 20
ALB
Williams
17%grid 16
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
88%
- vs teammate grid+0.99
- vs teammate quali+0.52
- driver form (last 5)+0.24
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 87.6%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 55.8%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race