driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.697
- brier
- 0.254
- ECE
- 0.248
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 69
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
85%grid 1 - 02
OCO
Haas F1 Team
81%grid 9 - 03
LEC
Ferrari
71%grid 8 - 04
DOO
Alpine
69%grid 14 - 05
NOR
McLaren
66%grid 2 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
62%grid 3 - 07
HAD
Racing Bulls
61%grid 11 - 08
BOR
Kick Sauber
59%grid 13 - 09
ALO
Aston Martin
58%grid 17 - 10
SAI
Williams
57%grid 6 - 11
ALB
Williams
46%grid 7 - 12
PIA
McLaren
44%grid 4 - 13
LAW
Racing Bulls
41%grid 15 - 14
STR
Aston Martin
41%grid 18 - 15
HUL
Kick Sauber
32%grid 16 - 16
RUS
Mercedes
30%grid 5 - 17
HAM
Ferrari
29%grid 12 - 18
BEA
Haas F1 Team
26%grid 19 - 19
GAS
Alpine
24%grid 20 - 20
TSU
Red Bull Racing
15%grid 10
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
85%
- vs teammate grid+0.92
- vs teammate quali+0.50
- driver form (last 5)+0.23
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 84.8%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 55.0%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race