driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.542
- brier
- 0.182
- ECE
- 0.083
- field avg
- 51%
- spread
- 70
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
VER
Red Bull Racing
87%grid 2 - 02
RUS
Mercedes
81%grid 1 - 03
BEA
Haas F1 Team
72%grid 9 - 04
PIA
McLaren
71%grid 3 - 05
ALO
Aston Martin
70%grid 10 - 06
HUL
Kick Sauber
64%grid 11 - 07
HAD
Racing Bulls
64%grid 8 - 08
SAI
Williams
63%grid 18 - 09
COL
Alpine
58%grid 16 - 10
HAM
Ferrari
58%grid 6 - 11
LEC
Ferrari
47%grid 7 - 12
ALB
Williams
46%grid 20 - 13
NOR
McLaren
39%grid 5 - 14
ANT
Mercedes
38%grid 4 - 15
BOR
Kick Sauber
36%grid 14 - 16
GAS
Alpine
32%grid 19 - 17
LAW
Racing Bulls
30%grid 12 - 18
STR
Aston Martin
25%grid 15 - 19
TSU
Red Bull Racing
17%grid 13 - 20
OCO
Haas F1 Team
16%grid 17
Top driver · factor breakdown
VER
Red Bull Racing
Probability
87%
- vs teammate grid+0.95
- vs teammate quali+0.53
- driver form (last 5)+0.22
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on VER (Red Bull Racing) at 86.5%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 59.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race