driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.161
- brier
- 0.053
- ECE
- 0.092
- field avg
- 14%
- spread
- 75
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
76%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
75%grid 2 - 03
PIA
McLaren
62%grid 3 - 04
NOR
McLaren
29%grid 5 - 05
ANT
Mercedes
21%grid 4 - 06
LEC
Ferrari
7%grid 7 - 07
HAM
Ferrari
4%grid 6 - 08
TSU
Red Bull Racing
3%grid 13 - 09
ALB
Williams
2%grid 20 - 10
HAD
Racing Bulls
1%grid 8 - 11
SAI
Williams
1%grid 18 - 12
LAW
Racing Bulls
1%grid 12 - 13
ALO
Aston Martin
1%grid 10 - 14
BEA
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 9 - 15
HUL
Kick Sauber
1%grid 11 - 16
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 19 - 17
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 15 - 18
COL
Alpine
1%grid 16 - 19
OCO
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 17 - 20
BOR
Kick Sauber
0%grid 14
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
76%
- grid position+2.01
- driver form (last 5)+0.66
- quali gap to pole+0.64
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 75.8%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 48.2%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)