JULES TACK.
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§ Round 20 · 2025

Mexico City Grand Prix.

2025-10-26 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation

← R19R21 →
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.164
brier
0.050
ECE
0.079
field avg
14%
spread
72

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    NOR

    McLaren

    73%grid 1
  2. 02

    RUS

    Mercedes

    47%grid 4
  3. 03

    LEC

    Ferrari

    47%grid 2
  4. 04

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    45%grid 5
  5. 05

    HAM

    Ferrari

    27%grid 3
  6. 06

    ANT

    Mercedes

    17%grid 6
  7. 07

    PIA

    McLaren

    11%grid 7
  8. 08

    TSU

    Red Bull Racing

    3%grid 10
  9. 09

    SAI

    Williams

    3%grid 12
  10. 10

    HAD

    Racing Bulls

    1%grid 8
  11. 11

    GAS

    Alpine

    1%grid 18
  12. 12

    HUL

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 13
  13. 13

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 14
  14. 14

    OCO

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 11
  15. 15

    LAW

    Racing Bulls

    1%grid 15
  16. 16

    COL

    Alpine

    1%grid 20
  17. 17

    ALB

    Williams

    1%grid 17
  18. 18

    STR

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 19
  19. 19

    BEA

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 9
  20. 20

    BOR

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 16

Top driver · factor breakdown

NOR

McLaren

Probability

73%

  • grid position
    +1.96
  • quali gap to pole
    +0.62
  • team form
    +0.60
pushes probability downshappushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 72.5%.

Strongest team average: McLaren 41.8%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)