driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.120
- brier
- 0.035
- ECE
- 0.030
- field avg
- 15%
- spread
- 83
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
PIA
McLaren
84%grid 1 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
65%grid 2 - 03
NOR
McLaren
63%grid 4 - 04
RUS
Mercedes
62%grid 3 - 05
LEC
Ferrari
6%grid 11 - 06
ANT
Mercedes
5%grid 13 - 07
SAI
Williams
4%grid 6 - 08
ALO
Aston Martin
4%grid 5 - 09
HAM
Ferrari
4%grid 12 - 10
ALB
Williams
3%grid 7 - 11
TSU
Red Bull Racing
2%grid 20 - 12
GAS
Alpine
1%grid 10 - 13
STR
Aston Martin
1%grid 8 - 14
HUL
Kick Sauber
1%grid 17 - 15
OCO
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 18 - 16
HAD
Racing Bulls
1%grid 9 - 17
BOR
Kick Sauber
1%grid 14 - 18
COL
Alpine
1%grid 16 - 19
LAW
Racing Bulls
1%grid 15 - 20
BEA
Haas F1 Team
1%grid 19
Top driver · factor breakdown
PIA
McLaren
Probability
84%
- grid position+1.81
- team form+1.08
- driver form (last 5)+0.94
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on PIA (McLaren) at 83.6%.
Strongest team average: McLaren 73.1%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)