driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
- log-loss
- 0.651
- brier
- 0.231
- ECE
- 0.087
- field avg
- 50%
- spread
- 62
Driver ranking
coloured by outcome · hit · miss
- 01
RUS
Mercedes
87%grid 3 - 02
VER
Red Bull Racing
79%grid 2 - 03
PIA
McLaren
75%grid 1 - 04
GAS
Alpine
73%grid 10 - 05
HAD
Racing Bulls
70%grid 9 - 06
ALO
Aston Martin
66%grid 5 - 07
LEC
Ferrari
62%grid 11 - 08
BOR
Kick Sauber
58%grid 14 - 09
SAI
Williams
50%grid 6 - 10
OCO
Haas F1 Team
49%grid 18 - 11
ALB
Williams
43%grid 7 - 12
BEA
Haas F1 Team
42%grid 19 - 13
HAM
Ferrari
36%grid 12 - 14
HUL
Kick Sauber
33%grid 17 - 15
STR
Aston Martin
33%grid 8 - 16
LAW
Racing Bulls
32%grid 15 - 17
COL
Alpine
31%grid 16 - 18
TSU
Red Bull Racing
29%grid 20 - 19
NOR
McLaren
26%grid 4 - 20
ANT
Mercedes
25%grid 13
Top driver · factor breakdown
RUS
Mercedes
Probability
87%
- vs teammate grid+0.98
- vs teammate quali+0.53
- driver form (last 5)+0.20
pushes probability downshappushes probability up
Summary
Strongest signal on RUS (Mercedes) at 86.6%.
Strongest team average: Mercedes 55.6%.
Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.
Back to F1 projectHead-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race