JULES TACK.
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§ Round 15 · 2025

Dutch Grand Prix.

2025-08-31 · 20 drivers · held-out evaluation

← R14R16 →
driver scores points (top 10)Qualifying — driver reaches Q3 (top 10)S: driver scores points (top 8)Sprint Qualifying — driver starts top 5driver finishes on the podium (top 3)driver WINS (1st place)Head-to-head — driver beats their teammate in the race
log-loss
0.295
brier
0.100
ECE
0.114
field avg
13%
spread
83

Driver ranking

coloured by outcome · hit · miss

  1. 01

    NOR

    McLaren

    84%grid 2
  2. 02

    PIA

    McLaren

    81%grid 1
  3. 03

    VER

    Red Bull Racing

    38%grid 3
  4. 04

    RUS

    Mercedes

    20%grid 5
  5. 05

    LEC

    Ferrari

    12%grid 6
  6. 06

    HAD

    Racing Bulls

    9%grid 4
  7. 07

    HAM

    Ferrari

    9%grid 7
  8. 08

    ALO

    Aston Martin

    2%grid 10
  9. 09

    STR

    Aston Martin

    1%grid 19
  10. 10

    HUL

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 17
  11. 11

    ALB

    Williams

    1%grid 15
  12. 12

    LAW

    Racing Bulls

    1%grid 8
  13. 13

    SAI

    Williams

    1%grid 9
  14. 14

    TSU

    Red Bull Racing

    1%grid 12
  15. 15

    BOR

    Kick Sauber

    1%grid 13
  16. 16

    ANT

    Mercedes

    1%grid 11
  17. 17

    GAS

    Alpine

    1%grid 14
  18. 18

    OCO

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 18
  19. 19

    COL

    Alpine

    1%grid 16
  20. 20

    BEA

    Haas F1 Team

    1%grid 20

Top driver · factor breakdown

NOR

McLaren

Probability

84%

  • grid position
    +1.86
  • team form
    +1.10
  • driver form (last 5)
    +0.82
pushes probability downshappushes probability up

Summary

Strongest signal on NOR (McLaren) at 83.5%.

Strongest team average: McLaren 82.2%.

Export a9872a5 · generated 2026-04-23T10:31:09+00:00. Republished automatically after every F1 session.

Back to F1 projectRace — driver finishes on the podium (top 3)